What fewer college applicants means for admissions

College news lately keeps pairing two stories. The first is a steady run of colleges announcing they will stop charging tuition to families below a certain income. Yale, for example, will waive tuition starting in 2027 for undergraduates from families earning $200,000 or less a year. Here are the major universities that have made similar announcements, with their family income thresholds.

Source: University announcements, GradPilot, Road2College

Amounts are annual family income. Most colleges use adjusted gross income (AGI) from the family's tax return, which is total income minus certain deductions, and some, like Texas A&M, also look at assets. Schools word their cutoffs slightly differently ("or less" vs. "less than"), so families close to a cutoff should confirm with each college directly.

Most private colleges also require assets that are "typical for the family's income," and the asset limits differ by school. Free tuition doesn't mean the full cost of attendance is free, so run each college's Net Price Calculator before applying to get an accurate number.

The second story is that even as aid grows, fewer students are applying to college than before. WICHE (the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education) projects that the number of U.S. high school graduates peaked at about 3.9 million in 2025 and will decline steadily to about 3.4 million by 2041, a 13% drop. The enrollment cliff, a shrinking population of college-age students, has already begun. One consulting firm estimates that more than 440 of the roughly 1,700 private nonprofit four-year colleges in the U.S. will close by 2036.

How admissions officers see this year's cycle

With fewer applicants, you might expect getting in to become a little easier. Kaplan, a large education company known for test and licensing prep, publishes a survey of college admissions officers every year. A closer look at this year's edition, released October 7, points the other way.

Survey sample: 212 admissions officers at top-ranked national universities, regional universities and liberal arts colleges in U.S. News, surveyed July to September 2026.

Of those officers, 90% said the 2026–27 cycle will be as competitive as last year or more so. Common App data cited in the survey shows that in the 2025–26 season, more than 1.5 million students (up 6% from the year before) submitted over 10.7 million applications. Each student applies to several schools, so the competition doesn't feel any lighter.

Outlook for 2026–27 admissions competition (212 respondents)

Source: Kaplan admissions officer survey (October 7, 2026).

On the enrollment cliff, 81% of officers said they are worried about its effect on higher education as a whole, and 68% said they expect a significant number of colleges to close or merge. Another 41% said it will affect how much financial aid colleges can offer.

Share of officers concerned about the enrollment cliff

Source: Kaplan admissions officer survey (October 7, 2026), 212 respondents

Test scores as a competitive edge

The 64% and 16% figures are among officers at test-optional colleges. Source: Kaplan (October 7, 2026)

The answer on test scores was clear. Among officers at test-optional colleges, 64% said a competitive SAT or ACT score improves a student's chances, a share that has held for several years. At those same colleges, 16% said their school is reconsidering a test requirement or has already decided to bring one back, about double last year's figure.

Colleges that brought back test requirements say scores help predict how students will do after they enroll. UT Austin is the clearest example. When UT made test scores required again in 2024, it published its own analysis. Among 2023 freshmen, students who submitted scores earned first-semester GPAs 0.86 points higher than those who didn't, even with high school class rank and GPA held equal, and were 55% less likely to fall below a 2.0 in their first semester. UT names using test scores to spot students who need support early as one reason its four-year graduation rate rose from 52% in 2013 to 74.5% in 2023. High scores lead to better college grades, better grades lead to higher graduation rates, and graduation rates feed into college rankings. For a college, a test score is a way to predict how an applicant will do once enrolled.

Demonstrated interest and college rankings

Another notable finding: 52% of officers said demonstrated interest, meaning actions like attending info sessions or campus tours and contacting the admissions office, works in a student's favor. Not every college considers demonstrated interest, so first check whether each school on your list does, and keep a record of the sessions you attend and the contacts you make.

Officers' views on rankings are worth knowing too. In the same survey, 70% said college rankings have become less credible in recent years. Use rankings as a reference only, and build the college list around the student's score range, intended major and each school's financial aid policy.

YEON Insight

We think falling population isn't the only reason fewer students are applying. The other is doubt about what a degree is worth. In a Gallup and Lumina Foundation survey conducted this June, 38% of U.S. adults said they have "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education, down sharply from 57% about ten years ago. People who lacked confidence pointed to high costs and to colleges not preparing students well for jobs. In a Pew Research Center survey, 49% said a four-year degree matters less for getting a good job than it did 20 years ago.

Share with "a great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in higher education

Source: Gallup and Lumina Foundation (released July 14, 2026).

Employment data lines up with this view. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the unemployment rate for bachelor's degree holders aged 22 to 27 was 5.6% as of March 2026. AI's effect is also starting to show up in the data. Researchers at Stanford's Digital Economy Lab (Erik Brynjolfsson and colleagues) analyzed payroll data from ADP, a large U.S. payroll and HR company. In occupations where AI can easily take over the work, employment of 22- to 25-year-olds was 19% lower than in occupations with little AI exposure. Experienced workers showed no such gap. The sense that entry-level office jobs are disappearing now shows up in the numbers too.

Cars did away with the coachman, and factory automation changed the work of a great many people. This is one more change of that kind. If anything, we see it as a reason to take a hard look at education today. On the 2024 NAEP (the National Assessment of Educational Progress), the average 12th-grade math score was the lowest since 2005, and 45% of students scored below Basic. The average reading score was the lowest since the assessment began, and only about 33% of students are estimated to be ready for college-level math. This is why YEON keeps pointing out how far public education falls short on quality.

The way students prepare for admissions won't change much over the next few years. Over the longer run, though, we expect the focus of education to move away from grades in core subjects like English and math and toward other abilities. The World Economic Forum (WEF), the international organization that gathers government and business leaders in Davos, Switzerland every year, surveyed more than 1,000 companies in 55 countries for its Future of Jobs Report 2025. The core skills they named most were analytical thinking (69%), resilience and flexibility (67%), leadership and social influence (61%) and creative thinking (57%). AI and big data skills (45%) are also quickly gaining importance. Students will need abilities that machines can't easily replace, like defining and solving problems on their own or understanding and persuading other people, along with the ability to use AI as a tool.

Share of employers naming each skill as core

Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 (1,000+ companies in 55 countries)

Some schools are already trying this. Alpha School, a private school based in Austin, has students spend about two hours a day on core subjects with AI-based learning apps and the rest of the day on life-skills classes like public speaking, leadership and entrepreneurship. The school says its students rank among the top nationally on MAP tests, but it hasn't released the underlying data, so no one has verified the claim independently. Critics also point to tuition of $40,000 to $75,000 a year, a student body that is already self-selected, and weak teaching of writing and long-form reading. Still, the direction deserves attention. Students cover academic subjects in short, efficient blocks and spend the time saved on abilities only people have.

Inequality in education never goes away, though, and not every student will see why these abilities matter or try to build them. We doubt public education can fully fill that role. YEON will keep its focus on today's grades and admissions while looking five and ten years ahead, and keep moving in the direction that actually helps students.